• 8 Posts
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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • I build some (they aren’t in Ukrainian hands yet, but will be - if they want them, because they’re advancing super fast and could be many steps ahead). There is no “might”, they work.

    10 kilometers of fiber weighs 1.5 kg, less if you buy fancier kinds of fiber. A drone with 10-inch props lifts this without problems. You can bend the fiber around a pencil and only experience degraded signal. Only a 90-degree bend will make it snap. In the war zone, landscapes after some battles already resemble “attack of the spiders” movies.

    In peace time, the challenge is finding a farmer who allows using their field to test this. Promising to reel everything in and pay for damaged crops goes a long way, though. But sea is an even better idea - easier to reel it back.

    P.S.

    I am quite grateful to an Ukrainian radio amateur, Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov. He published info about the early Russian models that were found crashed, and made a big deal about it, as one should. People listened to him and took him seriously, and started developing them ASAP.


  • From the article:

    “De jure” U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea.

    That would contravene the Budapest memorandum, in which other signatories (including the US) promise to “Respect the signatory’s independence and sovereignty in the existing borders”. Most likely, the president of Ukraine cannot simply sign this, but is required by constitution to hold a referendum. Which is not possible in war time. So to my understnading, this point sabotages the rest entirely. Ukraine cannot sign and ratify this, and consequently won’t.

    “De-facto recognition” of the Russia’s occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

    That would be merely untenable for Ukraine.

    The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014. / Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.

    That would be active cooperation with the agressor.

    I’m not sure if my crystal ball is cheap glass or a real palantir, but I see this proposal in the paper bin. I see the US overstepping promises made in better times. As a consequence, I also see certain European countries give zero damns about which weapons systems contain US components, and give those systems to Ukraine while they re-arm themselves with locally made items.


  • If you think of the fill percentage, I think that’s too optimistic, since they’re in a war. There is constant demand. However, even 50% would be an extremely big amount, and relieve Ukrainians from a lot of pressure (last year, when a similar thing happened in Toropets, it had effects on the front within weeks). This time, from the videos I saw, there was enough to keep detonating for a long time.

    Whatever the fill percentage and loss percentage, the site is closed for a long time - if something remains, it cannot be reached, it has to be examined and re-certified. But more likely, very little will remain.

    In the coming days, satellite photos will tell what the situation is.





  • When I date people, I don’t allow myself to go forward without completing a mutual background check. I ask questions and talk about politics, tell about situations I’ve encountered and listen attentively.

    I want to know about the other person’s world views, decision-making and problem-solving methods - and to inform them about my own. I want to know how they tell apart truth from a lie, what they think about state and centralization, wealth and poverty, science and religion, civil rights and minorities - and to inform them about what I think, so they could make informed decisions.

    Ironically, I don’t wish to know what party they vote for - because the selection is shitty and I laugh about my own past choices. :)

    Recalling situations where world views mismatched - I’ve had to part ways with one person because she was too spiritual. Two people subscribed to odd conspiracy theories. One person’s goals in life warned me about excessive self-interest and lack of care about others.

    P.S.

    Trying to switch perspective and step into the shoes of a woman, I think it can be a warning sign if the other person gives excessive gifts or feels “obligated to take care” - one should inquire about the reason. I would also be wary of people who eagerly accept me as the new centerpoint of their life - it might indicate an obsessive tendency and severe symptoms if the relation should break. If the other person exhibited jealousy about friends or controlling behaviour, that would be a definite warning sign to me.

    P.P.S.

    As for social media, yes, it can corrupt people’s perception of reality. How to pull them out of the bog, no idea. As for how to avoid them getting there: no algorithmically steered social media.



  • Thank you, I checked it. Speculation: they are washing something there. Or it could be a slaughterhouse to prepare animals for food. One would find out by pointing a drone with a telephoto lens at the place. The spill of strange material is persistent over a month. Whatever they do there, they do it persistently.

    • the L-shaped building pair is part of the CECOC prison complex

    • it is within the security perimeter of the prison in general

    • within the prison, it is within the security perimeter of the staff area (not inmate area)

    • it appears to be an auxiliary building

    • schematic here

    • your satellite photo is from Maxar, copyrighted in 2025, date unknown

    • there is a spill of something in the yard which might be speculated to be blood, and heaps of something in the yard

    • for comparison, I opened Google Maps to view a photo

    • I saw a different photo, but it likewise had an unidentified spill and unidentified material on the yard of the L-shaped building pair, but the arrangement differed somewhat

    • in my photo, I observed yellowish brown material that could be used to clean up a spill (e.g. sand, sawdust) spread onto the yard

    I made an intermediate conclusion: the spill is not a unique thing from one day only, but has persisted there. Prison staff have at some time taken actions to clean up something there.

    Example image from March 11, 2025

    Result: to conclude “they’re dead” about specific people is not logical.

    About the strange spill: satellite imagery does not permit to specifically identify what is going on there. An experienced intelligance analyst would be able to go deeper. To check if the contamination in the yard might be blood, I would find a known slaughterhouse in the region and compare images.


  • As a self-appointed satellite photo analyst, I should point out that the photo lacks time and context and is below the threshold of making any kind of identification.

    Violence by guards and inmates happens as a daily matter in a megaprison. If this is part of the same prison complex, then chances are high that it demonstrates violence that occurred to some other unfortunate persons or animals (the photo lacks resolution so badly that even human vs. animal identification is hard to make).

    (a larger photo should be published to provide context, and would be easy to publish for a person interested in proving things, so I caution against trusting the source too much - the source might be more interested in spreading a rumour that goes viral)

    These guys are likely still alive. But the chances of getting resistant tuberculosis in an El Salvadorian megaprison are extremely high. Besides gang and guard violene, spending time there can bring about a death sentence of a slow and paintful kind - carried out by bacteria that will reliably overcome a human immune system.