

But in 10-15 years nobody will let the Strait of Hormuz get blocked like this again.
How??? You have giant, slow, unarmed ships filled with flammable liquid that are forced to go through a small channel. Forget missiles and drones; you could set them on fire with artillery.
More likely, in 10-15 years we will have moved away from fossil fuels to the point that a closure will no longer crash the world economy.







The same fraction of oil production, yes, but a much smaller fraction of total energy production.
You would still have shortages of specific fractions that have non-energy uses (like Helium or plastics), but at least fuel would be less affected.