what money saved on wages?? it’s competing with a dollar a day laborers. $10 per 1 million tokens, for the “bad” (they all suck) models (something that cant even do this job!). if you can pretend the hallucinations dont matter, you are getting a phone call for (4 letters per token, 6 minute avg support call, 135 wpm talking rate let’s say 120 to be nice -> 720 tokens per call) = $0.0072 per call. the average call center employee handles around 40 calls a day, so hey, the bad cant-actually-do-it chatgpt 4 is 70 cents per day cheaper than your typical call center indian!

Except. that is the massively subsidized money hemorrhaging rate. We know that oai should be charging probably an oom or two more. and the newer models are vastly more expensive, o1 takes around 100x the compute, and still couldnt be a call center employee. so that price is actually at least $30 per day. Cheaper than a us employee, but still cant actually do the job anyway.

except current robot systems and people are likely cheaper, especially when you consider companies are liable for what llm say. which leaves, essentially, scams and other slop, as the last remaining use cases. multi trillion dollar business without a use case.

the tech is barely good enough that it is vaguely maybe feasibly cheaper to waste someone’s time using a robot rather than a human- oh wait we do that already with other tech.

“in 20 years imagine how good it’ll be!” alas, no, it scales logarithmically at best and all discussion is poisoned by “what it might be!” in the future, rather than what it is.

regardless of where you want to define the starting point of the boom, it’s been clear for months up to years depending on who you ask that they are plateuing. and harshly. stop listening to hypesters and people with a financial interest in llm being magic.

Oh! Hahahaha. No.

the vc techfeudalist wet dreams of llm replacing humans are dead, they just want to milk the illusion as long as they can.

gets where first?

all this started in 2023? alas no time marches on, llm have been a thing for decades and the main boom happened more in 2021. progress is not fast, no, these are companies throwing as much compute at their problems as they can. deepseek’s caused a 2t drop by being marginal progress in a field (llms specifically) out of ideas.

Well both of those things have been true months if not years, so if those are the conditions for a pop then they are met.

reads like every corporate admemo. why sacrifice your voice? i preferred the original.