- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
- cross-posted to:
- technology@lemmy.world
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The canary in the Taiwan coal mine is starting to cough a little.
Once China has AI parity or dominance with homegrown chips and the US can produce everything locally or in allied countries, there’s little need for the current protections to remain in place.
Can you say more on your point on local or allied production? I haven’t kept up, but last I heard the domestic US production of chips is many years away and likely to be generations older than Taiwan can produce. I was under the impression that these production lines take many many years to set up and train people for, unlike some manufacturing.
Which is why the proverbial canary is coughing a little, but is still alive.
TSMC announced their new gigafab in Arizona is being sped up with a 100 billion dollar investment to produce and later package the latest 2nm and A16 nodes. Taiwan is always a step ahead because it makes economic sense for it to be. If that stops being the case, then the US will take the lead and China will “Hong Kong” their way into Taiwan.
China parity with TSMC is always a year or two away
https://www.infoworld.com/article/2217963/china-s-smic-settles-lawsuits-with-tsmc.html
Unless China starts implementing the “We don’t care” stance due to the ongoing trade war, which, judging by this Nvidia move, they’re clearly moving towards.
China cares because they have an economic incentive to care. Once that’s gone they’ll switch their tune quite drastically I would assume and due to the nature of their government structure, quite rapidly, too.