OP is still a very new Linux user (if at all) that hammers on stability in every one of their posts. My comment was written with that in mind. But, even in its current version, it isn’t absolute and leaves room for nuance/exceptions by using terms like “(almost)” etc.

Veteran users with awareness of the Linux landscape are somewhat able to discern the upcoming serious projects with a future from the to-be abandonware. FWIW, I’ve championed distros like Bazzite (and its uBlue siblings), CachyOS, Nobara, PikaOS and secureblue far before they had any serious recognition (if at all). So I’m definitely with you that promising projects deserve adoption, support and more.

And let’s be honest, if a distro is a one man or small team project, mass adoption is no guarantee of longevity.

Agreed. I believe the “somewhat” I used alludes to that. One might argue that the concept of absolute guarantee doesn’t exist. Even with Arch and Debian*; though I’d argue they come closest IMO. Nevertheless, there are definitely gradations between Arch/Debian and a student-owned hobby project that was created just today.

Mass adoption is a relatively easy metric to gauge. And (often) comes with tons of support/discussion across the internet that will prove to be useful for the new user.

Please feel free to provide other metrics that OP or others might appeal to.